Who Has The Most to Lose?
By Ernie Varitimos
July 30, 2022
0:00 / 24:02
Who Has The Most to Lose?

How you doing friends Ernie here, and this is the zero days to expiration podcast, episode number 99. And today we're gonna talk about what it means to have skin in the game. And I guess the question you have to ask really is, um, who stands the lo most to Mo

who stands the most to lose. In any kind of human transaction. A lot of what I'm gonna talk about is actually, paraphrasing from Nassim Taleb's book, Skin in the Game, which is an allegory, or maybe even a number of allegories that talk about in a pithy way, the asymmetry in human interactions.

The number one thing that you have to really ask yourself is, what is in it for me. Right? Isn't that what it's all about? What is the best way to analyze risk other than to ask? Well, not only what is it in for me, but what is in it for the counterparty, the person that I am interacting with, what is their underlying motivation?

Because we all know that there are things that may not be apparent right at first. That's really the, uh, the very first question that you have to ask. There is always some kind of asymmetry between any kind of interaction, whether it's, you interacting with your doctor or your broker or another person that you're trying to do a deal with.

There is some level of asymmetry. You would hope that there asymmetry in your knowledge, everyone knows basically everything. Everybody else knows, but that. Hardly ever the case, there's always somebody that might have a slight edge. And in most cases you wouldn't even enter a transaction unless you felt like you had some kind of edge.

Isn't that true? It is. It's true.

Otherwise, why would you do it? Would you go into anything at a disadvantage? A lot of people would , that's a, it's just the truth, but so who knows more me or the other guy. Does one person have superior knowledge and are they using it to try to manipulate me right now?

The second factor you have to take into consideration is risk. Which person has more to lose in this transaction, most interactions in our daily lives , this is a question that we really ask, not really rarely ask. And what I mean by that is that, I guess we just take it for granted or we're we don't know the right question to ask and I guess a question like that would be going to your doctor for an appointment and you're going, because maybe you have some, um, something that you want to have some answers with.

So for instance, I, um, Back in 2020, I had COVID before they had any of the vaccines or anything like that. And I got pretty sick. Afterwards, after I became better, I went to the doctor for a checkup and he recommended that I have a cat scan of my chest just to see if there's anything going on.

I mean, I felt okay. I had all the antibodies now and everyth. That was okay. And so I, I went and I had that cat scan came back and he said, uh, Hey, have you ever worked with asbestos ? And I thought, why in the world is this guy asking me if I ever worked with asbestos? I said, no, of course not. I mean, yeah.