How to Trade a Difficult Market
By Ernie Varitimos
October 14, 2021
0:00 / 16:04
How to Trade a Difficult Market

All right, today today's podcast. First of all, this is Ernie. How you doing friends? And it is. Wednesday, October 13th. It's near the end of the day for the market. It's about 3 38 right now. Today was a fed. And unfed days, everybody's on the edge of their seat because they wondering, well, what's going to happen.

Is the fed going to change their direction? Are they going to taper? They not going to taper? Do we have to analyze their minutes for every little punctuation mark and try to figure out what in the world they're doing in the coming month. Is November going to be the big month where they start their tapering or reduction in the Q E which every institutional trader at least on, on the street is deathly afraid of.

It is more like they're just so hooked on the free money that they can't just imagine the fed would do that. And then retail traders were trying to figure out what the hell's going on. You know, if the market kind of go up or is it down, that's all we really care about.

It's usually the case where we don't want to be beholden to news because news news is a loss leader news. Generally is giving you after the fact information it's already been processed and figured in or calculated into or disk, as they say, discounted in the market. Now. Here at the zero, DTE don't necessarily follow news.

We're looking more for specific things that tend to move the market like economic reports, I guess you could say in a way that that's news, but real news would be the people that take those economic reports, then analyze them and then give, then spit out what they, what their analysis is of them.

I guess we are like those analysts. What I'm getting at here is that, over the past visitor, over the past month or so, let's turn that off over the past month or so the market has been in this kind of fun. Which is very normal for this time of the year, September and the beginning of October are really bad for traders, for algos, for institutional traders, for mutual funds, all of them, in general, from a seasonal point of view, it's one of the worst times of the year.

And if you go back 50 years, it's like that. This September is proving out that it's really no different than any other year.

Now, the problem that we're faced with is we're hoping for movement in the market. We want action without action. It's very difficult to achieve your goals without price action. I mean, in other words, the market trends one way or trends the other and for the past several weeks, it really hasn't been doing that for the past few months.

I guess one could say that we've come off of this incredible long trend. Literally years long. And we've been going straight up for months and months and months. And then all of a sudden fall comes around and we take this tiny little hook and we're in that hook right now. And a lot of people wondering is this the start of a new trend.

Now we've been in that little hook now for about four weeks. There's a lot to digest. Are we actually coming down? Is the market coming down? Is it starting a new downward trend after we've been going up for seems like forever. For some people, they might even say that we've been going up for their entire career because the market started going up really in 2009.